Good Friday Morning!
UEFA Champions League Final at Budapest, LHBP, will be occurring over the last weekend in May. The aerodrome will not be available to be used as an alternate with no airfield capacity available. Traffic in Europe continues to pick up, with 32,000 flights expected today. Single runway operations at TEB on 05/18 and 05/19 from 10z until 16z. Mt Kilauea on the big island of Hawaii continues to be active this morning with the latest bulletin indicating as to FL 100 between Hilo and Kona. No ash is expected by this afternoon. A very small sigmet remains in effect for portions of the big island. Severe turbulence is likely over Southern Europe today from Southern Spain to Western Italy from FL 200 to FL 340.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – none through Saturday. Conditions are being monitored for Sunday with possible severe weather from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. G1(minor) space alerts are in effect for Saturday and Sunday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – severe storms are very likely today over portions of Iowa with very large hail and gusty winds likely. A lower likelihood of severe weather is possible on Saturday from Northern KS to Eastern IA. Sunday looks to be very active with likely supercells from Northern OK to Central MN as a strong upper-level trough and surface cyclone move into the region. Reroutes will be likely especially after 21z.
Tropical weather outlook – all remains quiet. Today marks the start of the official tropical outlooks from the NHC.
Europe outlook – on Sunday, multiple upper-level lows will be present over the continent. One will be over Northern Scotland along with a secondary one just to the North of Istanbul, Turkey. Widespread showers will be over Ireland, but no severe weather is expected. On Monday, deep low pressure will be centered 700 miles west of Shannon, Ireland, with a warm front approaching Ireland. Periods of rain and gusty winds will occur over Ireland, gradually pushing into the UK Monday evening and Tuesday in association with the front and upper-level trough. A significant pattern change will occur by mid-week with an upper-level ridge building into the continent with above normal temperatures and more stable conditions.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Monday, generally light winds are expected north of 50N, with the primary jet around 40N from Nova Scotia to Western France with velocities of 75 knots. Expect significant changes in the overall jet stream pattern by middle to end of next week due to upper-level ridging over Europe.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
