Good Monday Morning!
Main concern this week will be the remnants of Typhoon Choi-Wan, which will be a high impact storm to affect the NOPACS, not in terms of thunderstorms but mainly for ETP concerns. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots are likely at PASY. Jet A1 fuel is not available at NSFA, Faleolo INTL until early December per notam P0494/26.
No Critical weather days are in effect through Wednesday. Space weather remains quiet through Wednesday also.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no significant severe weather outbreaks are expected through the end of the week.
Tropical weather outlook – Cat 4, typhoon Choi-Wan, 285 miles ENE of Iwo To is moving NNW at 11 knots. It will pass harmlessly well to the East of Tokyo tomorrow. In the SW Gulf a trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Latest computer modeling does indicate some development later on this week with a general movement towards the Northeast Gulf.
Europe outlook – a broad upper-level trough over Western Europe with a weak surface low in the Bay of Biscay on Tuesday will help promote a good chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern France and much of Spain and Portugal. No severe weather is expected. On Wednesday the broad upper-level trough will move slowly East with surface low pressure over central France which will help create fairly good coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Southern North Sea to Northern Spain to Northern Italy. A strong cold front on Thursday along with the upper-level trough passage will help open up the opportunity for the first snowfall in the Alps.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Wednesday, with an upper level trough over Central Europe along with another upper level trough over Baffin Island in combination with an upper level ridge just North of the Azores will allow for a non zonal flow to continue.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
