Good Monday Morning!
ALO, Waterloo IA remains closed until 09/23. BGR, Bangor ME is closed overnight from 0445Z until 0845Z until 09/18 per Notam 09/041. MGGT, La Aurora INTL has limited JET A-1 Fuel due to ongoing social unrest. Also, expect possible delays due to high traffic volume until 09/15 2100z. MT ETNA remains very active with LICC not available until at least 2000z today. Code RED alert remains in place. Thin ash plume drifting Southeast and quickly dissipating.
No Critical weather days are expected through Wednesday and no geomagnetic storms are forecast through Wednesday too.
CONUS severe weather outlook – today looks to be most active for entire week with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Eastern NE to Western IA with a few supercells possible.
Tropical weather outlook – invest area 90W, located 350 miles North of Chuuk has a moderate chance of developing over the next 24 hours. This system will have to watched closely in the longer term with possible impacts to Japan later on this weekend per the latest operational GFS and EURO models. The google deepmind model predicts it will be just East of Japan in 168 hours, or 00z Monday the 21st as a fairly powerful cyclone.
Europe outlook – on Tuesday, low pressure in the Northern North Sea, and associated cold front will extend from Western Denmark to NW France with a few showers expected along the front. On Wednesday, the front and associated upper level trough will extend from Western Finland to Southern France with a few heavier showers along it especially over central Europe. No severe weather is expected along the front.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – by midweek a continuation of a fairly strong zonal flow will continue with peak velocities of 125 knots over Ontario. This pattern will likely continue through Friday making the East bound flights arrive ahead of schedule.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
