Good Monday Morning!
With the UN general assembly meetings going on this week, several TFR’s are in place for the NYC area. JFK and LGA appear to be most restrictive with all the nearby airports open however restrictions may preclude the most optimal arrivals and departures. JET A1 fuel remains limited at ELLX until 09/24 due to WIP on a fuel supply pipeline. PAZA notam A2576 remains in effect until at least 10/31 referencing GNSS interference and Jamming along R220 between NUZAN and NRKEY. Fortunately the airspace controlled by EGPX and EGGX is now operational with high delays expected for the remainder of the day.
No Critical weather days are expected through Wednesday and space weather remains quiet too.
CONUS severe weather outlook – overall, a fairly quiet period is setting up through early next week.
Tropical weather outlook – TS FAY, located 400 miles SW of the Azores will likely succumb to dry air over the next 24 hours and odds are it will degenerate into a post-tropical storm by then. TS POLO, 240 miles S of Manzanillo, Mexico will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24 to 36 hours due to very good environmental conditions. Even though the core of the hurricane is likely to remain offshore during its life cycle it will have to be watched carefully for the high likelihood of heavy rain along the central Mexican coastline. Typhoon Dujuan, 100 miles South of Yokosuka, Japan is moving rapidly NE at 16 knots. It is expected to be extra tropical in 24 to 30 hours. It has made it’s closest approach to Tokyo right now with improving weather expected in the next six hours or so.
Europe outlook – mid day Tuesday will feature strong high pressure over much of the continent with a weak cold front from Scotland to Ireland with a few showers along the front. Not much change is expected on Wednesday. Probabilities for thunderstorms remain slight through mid-week. No snow is expected in the alps through the weekend too.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – a more or less zonal flow will take place on Wednesday with velocities in excess of 125 knots at times.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
