Good Friday!
NCRG, Rarotonga INTL has a critical shortage of JET A1 fuel per notam P0464/26. This is expected to continue until at least 10/22. High volume is expected at ASE this weekend. Two presidential TFR’s have popped up this weekend. First one affects TYS on Saturday from 1030 local until 1630 local for the Univ of TX VS the Univ of TN football game. Second one applies to airspace around ORD on Sunday. Please check the FAA TFR site for further details. Expect travel delays over the NE and Mid Atlantic states this weekend in conjunction with the Nor’easter which will slowly wind down by Monday. I have included a few images from the latest operational GFS and EURO models that will provide further details.
Critical weather days remain in effect until 12z on the 28th in support of tropical, heavy rainfall and flash flood operations in Hawaii. Space weather remains quiet.
CONUS severe weather outlook – please see the latest outlooks from SPC.
Tropical weather outlook – very impressive CAT 5 Hurricane POLO, located 425 miles South of Cabo San Lucas will likely make landfall over Central Baja California Sur as a CAT 2 cyclone bringing very heavy rain to an area that normally does not receive significant annual rain. In the longer term the moisture from POLO may help bring heavy rain to the Southern and Central Plains of the US. Cat 1 hurricane NOLO, 430 miles SSE of Honolulu could bring Catastrophic and life-threating flash flooding to the big island over the weekend then gradually move to the West, well South of Maui as a CAT 4 cyclone. Tropical storm Surigae is expected to pass well East of Taiwan as a CAT 2 cyclone. In the longer term it should pass to the East of Japan by mid week.
Europe outlook – on Sunday high pressure over Latvia will ridge into much of the continent. A cold front over Ireland and Scotland will bring a band of heavier showers to this region, weakening by the nighttime hours. On Monday a cold upper-level low over the Black Sea will produce showers over this region while an upper-level ridge will dominate from Italy to Latvia. Thunderstorm and lightning activity appears very limited through Sunday night.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Sunday afternoon the primary jet will reside from Baffin Island to Newfoundland to Ireland with peak velocities of 150 knots just East of Newfoundland.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
