Good Monday Morning!
Italy strike has been announced for Wednesday Sept 30th from 11 until 15z. Overflights will not be impacted along with incoming intercontinental flights. France has announced industrial action for tomorrow. Notam F1981/26 has been published. Fortunately low impact expected for enroute ACC’s. LFML will be impacted greatly. Mount ETNA has been assigned an aviation code RED. Ash cloud with tops to FL 140 continues to drift to the SSW towards Malta and several sigmets remain in place for Eastern Sicily to Malta (LMML). Widespread heavy rain from NM to the Central Plains has resulted in the WPC issuing a moderate chance of excessive rainfall through at least Wednesday, however this will likely extend into the weekend with a slow moving frontal system and moisture from Hurricane Polo.
No Critical weather days are in effect however this will likely change due to excessive rainfall and possible flooding in NM and portions of the SouthWest. Space weather remains quiet.
CONUS severe weather outlook – day 3, Wednesday looks to be active over the Southern Plains with the possibility of super cells which could result in large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two.
Tropical weather outlook – typhoon Surigae, 200 miles ENE of Kadena AFB continues to weaken rapidly and will pass harmlessly East of Japan over the next few days. Cat 3 hurricane Polo, 110 miles SW of CABO San Lazaro Mexico continues to move NNE at 10 mph. It is expected to make landfall over central BAJA CA SUR later on this afternoon, then finally dissipate by 18z Tuesday well to the East of Hermosillo, Mexico. In the longer term BAJA CA will have to watched as TS Rachel slowly intensifies and moves off to the NW. It is currently located 250 miles SSW of Acapulco. No concerns in the Atlantic basin.
Europe outlook – on Tuesday at 12z, deep low pressure (975mb) will be located 250 miles SW of Shannon, Ireland, with a cold front extending from the low to extreme NW Portugal. Heavy rain showers will be present from Northern Ireland to Western Portugal; however, no thunderstorms are forecasted. Strong high pressure will dominate much of the rest of the continent. On Wednesday, the very deep area of low pressure (958mb) will move almost due North and be located 375 miles SSE of BIKF. Widespread showers are likely from the UK and Ireland to France and Spain with no thunderstorms expected once again. On Thursday the very deep area of low pressure will be over Western Iceland and will be a high impact event for the island with very gusty winds, heavy rain, and snow possible over the Eastern portions of the country. Interestingly heavy snow is also possible over portions of Eastern Greenland from Wednesday through Friday.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Wednesday the flow will remain zonal for the most part with the primary jet from Southern Canada to Gander to NW France.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
