Good Wednesday Morning!
MYEM, Governor’s Harbour, will be closed from 10/05 to 11/02 per notam A0385/26. MYEH, 22 miles to the NW remains open. A presidential TFR is in effect this week for the Dallas area on Thursday. Another one will be in effect for Mobile, AL on Friday October 2nd. Italy strike remains on track for today from 11Z until 15Z. Aerodromes affected are LIPE/LIPX/LIPR and LIPK. Overflights are not affected along with flights to the Italian Islands.
No Critical weather days are in effect however a CWD might be needed this week for excessive rainfall from NM to the Southern Plains along with tropical cyclone operations in the Northern Marianas Islands. Space weather remains quiet through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – today looks to the most active for the next seven days with a slight risk for much of Western TX.
Tropical weather outlook – main story continues to be Hurricane Rachel, located 220 miles SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico moving NW at 10 knots. It is expected to become a major hurricane by tomorrow, but hopefully it will pass well to the SW of Baja over the next 36 to 60 hours based on the latest modeling. TD 26W, 300 miles East of Saipan, moving West at 08 knots, will likely intensify rapidly over the next several days and will move in a Westerly direction, then becoming Northerly next week.
Europe outlook – interesting scenario through tonight over portions of South Eastern France where a level 2 alert has been issued for excessive rain with local amounts of 100-200 mm possible in a short amount of time. On Thursday the very deep area of low pressure will be located over Western Iceland with a cold front extending from the low to Western Norway to Germany to Central Spain. Showers likely along the front with thunderstorms possible over South Eastern Spain. On Friday, thunderstorms are possible over South Eastern Spain, with high pressure dominating over much of the continent. Heavy showers are possible over Scotland on Friday in association with a cold front. Still not seeing a signal for snow in the Alps for the next seven days at least.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – mid day Friday will feature a fairly strong zonal flow from Eastern Canada to the UK. No strong upper level ridges or troughs will be present.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
