Good Friday Morning!
For operators intending to go into EGWU (Northolt, UK) are reminded to check your insurance documents well in advance. You may need an AVN 95 endorsement. Presidential TFR’s will limit traffic into MMU and CDW this evening, then again Sunday evening. Please check the FAA’S TFR web page for further details. MT Etna is now under a code yellow alert with ash extending South of the volcano towards Malta with tops to FL200. If the volcano continues to erupt expect a general movement of the ash to the South through at least Sunday due to the upper-level ridge over the Eastern Mediterranean. VIDP FIR will be closed on 15 August from 0030z until 1530z due to Independence Day celebrations.
No critical weather days are in effect through Sunday. No geomagnetic storms are forecast too.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a slight risk of severe weather exists beginning from 18-20z today in a narrow corridor over the Mid-Atlantic states which will likely lead to significant ATC delays from IAD to the NYC area per the latest HRRR model. Please see the latest forecasts from SPC concerning marginal risks over the weekend.
Tropical weather outlook – Typhoon Dolphin, 20 miles NE of Kadena AFB moving SW at 09 knots. It will weaken slightly before landfall, then rapidly weaken over land in 96 hours well to the North of Taiwan, and well South of Shanghai. TS Chan-hom, 475 miles NE of Minami Tori Shima remains in an unfavorable environment for development. It may affect portions of Northern Japan Tuesday morning, hopefully remaining well to the North of Tokyo as a moderately strong tropical storm. East Pacific and Atlantic basins remain fairly quiet.
Europe outlook – on Saturday a cold upper-level low (and surface low) will be located midway between Scotland and Iceland with a weak cold front extending from the low to Western Ireland. A few showers are likely along the front with normal late afternoon convection likely once again from Eastern Spain, Italy and the Balkan region. On Sunday the weak cold front will advance slowly East with little fanfare while daytime thunderstorms remain likely from Eastern Spain to Southern France to Northern Italy. Big story will be another heat wave likely over much of Western Europe by mid-week with temperatures > 35C once again possible as an upper-level ridge builds into the area.
Canadian smoke model forecast– for mid-day today, smoke will be confined from Eastern BC to Eastern and central OR. For mid-day Saturday the areal extent of the smoke will increase from Eastern BC/Banff area towards Western WY to extreme NE NV. Concentrations will likely remain very high. By Sunday lower concentrations will advance East and will encompass a much larger footprint in the Western US and Canada.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
