Good Wednesday Morning!
Runway 01/19 will be closed until 09/30 at FRG. Longer runway 14/32 remains open. More fuel shortages across the South Pacific. NFTV has no Jet A1 available until at least 09/01. At NFTF, nonscheduled flights require prior approval due to limited Jet A1 fuel supply issues. No issues noted at nearby NSTU airport. Waterloo, Iowa, ALO will close down completely from Sept 8th until Sept 22nd. Nearest suitable airport will be CID, 50 miles to the SE. Official TFR has been issued for the Houston area for Thursday and Friday, primarily impacting HOU and EFD.
No critical weather days and no geomagnetic storms are forecast through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – skipping ahead to Thursday, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be present from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast in association with the passage of a mid-level trough. Expect airport delays along the East Coast tomorrow afternoon through the evening hours.
Tropical weather outlook – extremely busy period across the tropics today. Fortunately, the only storm of real interest is Typhoon Saudel, 130 miles NNW of Kadena AFB moving NW at 09 knots. It is expected to slowly weaken as it makes landfall well to the South of Shanghai around 00z on the 28th. Routes today from Japan to the Southwest will be affected, with less impact expected on Thursday.
Europe outlook – estofex has highlighted areas from Northern Spain to Western France today for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes, in association with a short-wave trough ejecting from Spain. Expect convection on Thursday morning over the Southern UK in association with a warm front moving North. This will likely create significant delays over the region through at least 12z. On Friday a surface cyclone over Scotland and a cold front from Poland to the Western Mediterranean Sea will provide the catalyst for fairly good coverage of showers and thunderstorms which will likely lead to enroute delays over the central part of the continent which I suspect will be a very busy day over the airspace.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Friday, a zonal flow will be present with the core of the jet from WV to YYT the Bay of Biscay with max velocities of 100 knots. This pattern will persist through Sunday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
