Good Wednesday Morning!
A presidential TFR is in effect today for MGE and RYY from 1230 local until 1630 local. Some approaches and/or departures might be affected at FTY/PDK and ATL. LEBL, aircraft with a wingspan > 19.2m are limited to a 3 hour max stay until 07/29 at 10z. Notam A5239/26 applies. Many of the Gulf routes will remain closed today due to the impacts from TS Bertha. Expect reroutes on the more inland routes.
No critical weather days are in effect through Friday. No geomagnetic storms are expected through Friday too.
CONUS severe weather outlook – after today a fairly quiet period will be setting up in terms of significant weather outbreaks.
Tropical weather outlook – Ts Bertha, 60 miles South of Pascagoula MS is moving West at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. This remains a very lopsided system with all the convection displaced well to the SW of the system. A general Westerly track is expected for the next 36 hours before dissipating over extreme SE TX. East Pacific remains active however no impacts are expected to any countries/states. In the Western Pacific, suspect area 92W, located 350 miles NW of Yap has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Latest operational GFS and EURO model slowly develop the system into a TC and move in the general direction of the Northern Philippines on Friday.
Europe outlook – on Thursday a broad NW flow continues over the continent with an upper-level trough from Poland to the Balkans which will help kick off isolated daytime thunderstorms. Eastern Spain will also have widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. On Friday a cold upper-level low over Greece will help initiate pm thunderstorms from Greece North into Eastern Poland. High pressure will prevail over much of Western Europe. Per estofex, chances of severe thunderstorms exist through this evening over Eastern Spain, Southern Italy, and Greece with the primary threats being large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.
Canadian smoke model forecast – primary smoke will remain over Eastern WA through Thursday. The smoke appears to thin out by Friday. No issues in the Northeast USA.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
