Good Monday Morning!
At LFPB airport, expect disruptions during Bastille Day rehearsals and celebrations from July 9th through the 14th. No takeoffs or landings will be possible on 07/09 from 1430 to 1605 local and 07/14 between 0950 and 1135 am local. AIP SUP 142/26 has further details. Allen conference in Sun Valley is occurring this week. Preferred routes have been published. Busiest arrival day will be Tuesday July 7th, with the busiest departure day expected to be Saturday July 11th. The airport will be closed overnight from 2300 to 0700 local too for noise abatement. LICC remains closed until 16z due to Ash from Mt Etna. Near record high pressure will be recorded early this week over Tasmania (1044 mb) which will result in clear and cold weather over Se Australia and Tasmania with sub-freezing overnight lows anticipated.
A critical weather day remains in effect until 12z Tuesday for tropical cyclone operations across Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. No geomagnetic storms are expected through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – please see the latest outlooks from SPC.
Tropical weather outlook – Super Typhoon Bavi, 90 miles NW of Andersen AFB is moving WNW at 11 knots. It is expected to remain very strong for the next 72 hours (150 knots) then slowly decay. I have included a few images from the official JTWC forecast office and some of the operational and AI models for comparison in the longer range to see if it will affect Taiwan and portions of East Central China.
Europe outlook – third heatwave of the summer is expected this week over much of the Western part of the continent, but it will not be as extreme as the latest event. At 12z Tuesday a fairly strong upper-level low (and surface Low) will be located over Southern Sweden with a cold front extending from the low to Northern Scotland. A strong upper-level ridge will be building into France the UK providing support for subsidence and warming temperatures. On Wednesday, the upper-level low will be near Minsk with a cold front extending from the low towards the Swiss alps with a few showers and thunderstorms along the front. Apex of the upper-level ridge will extend from Western France to Scotland with little in the way of sensible weather over much of Western Europe. Good news is that enroute delays due to weather should be minimized across the continent through Thursday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
