Good Monday Morning!
Dublin Ireland, EIDW, will have restricted access during upcoming EU Presidency periods. GA slots will be limited and not allocated until 7 days prior with priority given to diplomatic flights and official EU Presidency movements. 15-17 July, 31 August-02 Sept, 17-19 Sept and 12-13 Nov. No presidential TFR’s are in effect with the G7 summit taking place in Evian, France through Wednesday.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – no geomagnetic storms are forecast through Wednesday. No official critical weather days are in effect; however, I suspect this will be upgraded due to at least a moderate risk of excessive rainfall along the TX and LA gulf coast region.
CONUS severe weather outlook – day 3, Wednesday, appears to have the highest likelihood of severe weather from central IN to extreme Eastern KS where all types of severe weather are possible with the passage of a midlevel shortwave trough. Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible.
Tropical weather outlook – invest area 92W, 940 miles East of Guam has a low chance of developing over the next 18 to 24 hours. Latest computer models are not bullish on development until later on this week. A trough of low pressure over NE Mexico has a 30 percent chance of developing late Tuesday or Wednesday over the NW Gulf. Even if it does not develop heavy rainfall rates are possible along the TX and LA coastal regions.
Europe outlook – Estofex has issued a level 1 alert for Tuesday from Central Germany to Northern Tunisia to the Balkans for isolated large hail and possible severe wind gusts in association with a mid and upper-level short wave. UK met office has issued a yellow heat alert for SE England from Wednesday afternoon through Monday evening. On Wednesday surface low pressure 450 miles South of BIKF along with a stationary front over the Southern UK will help produce a few showers over this region while surface high pressure dominates over Central Europe. Later on this week a persistent upper-level ridge will be centered over central Europe bringing very warm temperatures of much of Western and Central UK along with increasing dewpoints, especially from Friday through Saturday.
North Atlantic Jet stream – by midweek, a fairly strong jet stream will set up from the lower Great Lakes to East of Halifax to Denmark with peak velocities of 125 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
