Good Wednesday Morning!
NTAA, Papeete, French Polynesia continues to have significant restrictions for GA flights. Please check the notams carefully. KLNK, Lincoln NE will have their primary runway closed 18/36 until early December for a lengthy reconstruction project. Effective immediately, per the Government of India guidelines, all arriving crew and passengers are requested to fill out a health declaration for, due to the EBOLA Virus Outbreak. PPR requirements continue for arrivals into all Houston TX area airports until early July. Mt ETNA in Sicily had weak ash emission earlier today, moving SE at 10 knots. No volcanic ash is expected from 12z onward and no sigmets are currently in effect. Some Gulf of Mexico reroutes are possible due to thunderstorms associated with potential TC One.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – critical weather days remain in effect through Friday morning for excessive rainfall and tropical cyclone operations along the TX and LA gulf coast. No geomagnetic storms are forecast.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a significant severe weather outlook is expected today over IL and IN as an intense mid and upper-level jet helps support thunderstorms with the primary threat being several intense tornadoes, wind gusts in excess of 75 mph and large hail. On Thursday this area will move East with a slight risk from the Northeast US to Kentucky with some delays expected on what should be a busy Thursday to start a long weekend for some.
Tropical weather outlook – at 12z Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located 15 miles ESE of Port O’Connor TX moving NE at 7 mph. Still not sure if it is going to run out of real estate before it can become a TS as it skirts along the upper TX coast through this evening. Official forecast has it becoming a TS with max winds of 35 knots as it passes over Galveston Bay around 18z today.
Europe outlook – estofex has level 1 and 2 alerts for today from Algeria to Western Spain to areas East of Italy for thunderstorms with possible large hail and gusty winds. On Friday a strong upper-level ridge will dominate from Italy to Finland with a fairly stable airmass in place. Look for little change on Saturday into early next week. With warming aloft and 16 hours of daylight common with the strong late June sun look for a prolonged heat wave to set in with temperatures well above normal and very little prospects for significant precipitation. In fact, high temperatures could easily exceed 100F in portions of France including Paris on Sunday and Monday will little overnight relief.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
