Good Monday Morning!
No official presidential TFR for BIS (Bismarck, ND) yet. Anchorage FIR (ZAN) notam a2219/24 refers to GPS interference on route R220 from NUZAN to NRKEY. The notam remains in effect until 07/31. Biggest concern this week will be the building heat in the Midwest and Eastern portions of the US and Canada underneath the building upper-level ridge. With the high temperatures you might want to check performance numbers especially with airports with shorter runways. As expected, high delays are currently occurring over Central Europe due to Clustered CB’S with tops in excess of FL 400.
No critical weather days are in effect. No geomagnetic storms expected through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – for today, a slight risk exists over the Northern Plains and the upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns. On Tuesday this area shifts to the East with a slight risk from Northern WI to the upper Peninsula of MI. Damaging winds appear to be the likely hazard. Wind gusts in excess of 130 mph have been recently reported across Central SD and a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until noon CDT from Eastern SD to portions of Western MN.
Tropical weather outlook – a very low chance exists for tropical development offshore the SE US Coast for the next few days. Invest area 95W, 25 miles North of Kwajalein has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. This area will have to be watched over the weekend, into early next week as the operational GFS and EURO models show significant development. Invest area 96W, 600 miles ESE of Manila has a low chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Global models show some development later on this week as the system moves in the general area of Hong Kong.
Europe outlook – Wednesday looks to be active across the continent with good coverage of thunderstorms likely from Eastern France to the Balkans to Poland, likely creating significant enroute delays over this portion of the continent. Eastern Europe will be under the gun on Thursday with fairly good thunderstorm coverage expected.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
