Good Friday Morning!
No surprise here with the world cup coming. A ppr requirement is now in effect for EWR until 20 July at 04z. Please check notam 06/034 EWR. PBI, Palm Beach INTL, will be renamed Donald J Trump INTL effective July 9th. Faa and ICAO codes will change to DJT and KDJT. Please be mindful of notams for MRLB for numerous runway closures through the summer. Strick PPR requirement will be in effect for YVR, Vancouver INTL, from 06/10 through 07/08. Same general principle applies for YYZ, Lester B Pearson INTL. A presidential TFR will be in effect for Monday night from 1830 local until 0030 local in the NYC area. TEB/EWR will be in the outer ring fortunately.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – no critical weather days through the weekend. A G3 geomagnetic storm is currently in progress for today. Thereafter no storms are on the horizon.
CONUS severe weather outlook – highest impact will be on Saturday afternoon/early evening from the upper OH valley to Southern New England in association with a short wave and cold front moving through the area. Biggest threats will be high winds and large hail. Expect significant travel impacts over this region with delays and reroutes likely.
Tropical weather outlook – invest area 91W, 25 miles SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is classified as a subtropical depression. Latest operational EURO model intensifies this low with a fairly broad wind field and heavy rain moving into Southern Japan after 18z Saturday through 18z Sunday. Tokyo will likely be spared the heaviest rain and gusty winds. In the Eastern Pacific two areas will have be watched. First one is just offshore Costa Rica and the other is just to the South of Puerto Escondido Mexico. Even without development any flights going through this region can expect widespread thunderstorms and it might be prudent to route over the spine of Central America VS the offshore routes. The latest GFS is fairly aggressive in showing development of both of these areas early next week.
Europe outlook – on Saturday at 12z, deep low pressure will be centered near Cardiff with a cold front extending from the low to Central France. An upper-level trough over the same general area will help promote gusty winds and periods of showers at times from the UK to the Benelux region. On Sunday, upper-level ridging will attempt to build into the continent however an approaching cold front will be approaching Ireland, and this will kick off showers to much of Ireland and the Western UK into the evening hours. On Monday, deep surface low pressure over extreme Eastern Iceland along with an upper-level trough and cold air aloft will help promote showers over much of Ireland and the UK.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Sunday, the dominate feature will be the broad upper-level low midway between Ireland Greenland with the primary jet residing from Newfoundland to Western France with velocities of 75 to 100 knots. Look for nosig changes on Monday.
