Good Monday Morning!
The situation in Saudi Arabia remains tense. OERK, remains closed until Oct 17th per notam A3604/26. A new FAA security notam remains in place, A0056/26 for the Jeddah FIR, OEJD, advising the potential for a hazardous situation over this region. It remains in effect until 12/10. Hurricane Simon in the Eastern Pacific continues to create issues in terms of airport closures. MMPR and MMZO remain closed until 14z today. Several presidential TFR’S remains in place this week and I would expect this pattern to continue until election day. If you planning a tech stop on Wednesday in Iceland, you might want to reconsider your decision as a 935mb low will be approaching the island with very strong winds and periods of heavy rain and possible blizzard conditions at the higher elevations.
NO critical weather days remain in effect through mid week. Space weather also remains quiet.
CONUS severe weather outlook – most active day this week will most likely be on Tuesday, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the TX panhandle to the Kansas City area where widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
Tropical weather outlook – most significant feature this morning is CAT 3 hurricane Simon, 50 miles WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, crawling to the NW at 2 mph. It is expected to make landfall just to the North of Mazatlán late Wednesday night as a CAT 1 hurricane. Computer models continue to struggle with this system and I would not be surprised to see changes to the forecast going forward.
Europe outlook – On Tuesday, deep low-pressure midway between Iceland and Norway will have a cold front extending from the low to the central North Sea to extreme NW Portugal. Showers will accompany the front, but no severe weather is likely. High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail over central Europe. A cold upper-level trough and low-pressure area will bring heavy showers to portions of Greece and Western Turkey. On Wednesday this system will move slowly East bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea while very strong surface high pressure builds into France and the Southern UK.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – at 18z Wednesday, the upper level trough over the central Atlantic will help promote a very strong SW jet over the Eastern Atlantic with velocities in excess of 150 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
