Good Wednesday Morning!
As of 12z this morning, the very intense surface cyclone, 931mb, located just to the SE of BIKF is producing very gusty winds and heavy rain/snow over the island where sigmets remain in place for severe turbulence and icing. The cyclone will move quickly to the NE over the next 24 hours with improving weather expected over the island by tonight. All GA flights into EBBR require a PPR until 10/16 at 15z.
The need for a critical weather day to support excessive rainfall over OK is being monitored. Space weather remains quiet through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists through this evening over the Southern Plains. Thereafter a quieter pattern will set in through the weekend.
Tropical weather outlook – extremely small Hurricane Simon, 160 miles WSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico is crawling West at 3 mph. Its future track remains a challenge with very low confidence as the models are not in agreement. TS Trudy, 400 miles South of Acapulco, Mexico, will likely become a hurricane within the next day and could become a major hurricane by Friday morning with a close approach to Puerto Vallarta likely over the weekend.
Europe outlook – on Thursday a strong cold front will extend from Western Norway to the central UK with a few showers along the front. Over central Europe an upper-level ridge will dominate along with surface high pressure over SE Germany. On Friday the cold front will move quickly to the SE with strong high pressure building into Western Europe. Cold upper level low on Friday will be centered over Bulgaria and Romania creating widespread shower activity over this region to Western Turkey. On Saturday very strong high pressure will be centered over Scotland (1040mb).
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Friday a wavy pattern will exist due to numerous upper level ridges and troughs with a very strong jet present from the lower Great Lakes to just East of Bermuda with velocities in excess of 125 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
