Good Monday Morning!
Presidential TFR’s remain in place for Wichita, KS later on this afternoon through tonight. Watching for a high impact storm to affect Ireland/UK and Northern France from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. More details below. Not sure at this point if the UK MET office will name this storm.
No critical weather days are in effect through Wednesday. Space weather remains quiet through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a relatively quiet pattern is expected through the end of the week.
Tropical weather outlook – much quieter pattern is expected this week. Cat 5 Champi, 300 miles WNW of Yap is moving WNW at 08 knots. Under nearly perfect upper atmospheric conditions it is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours then slowly weaken as it approaches Eastern Taiwan on Friday. The operational models remain in disagreement on the final landing place of this potentially high impact storm for Taiwan. The google AI model is in close agreement with the official JTWC forecast.
Europe outlook – on Wednesday, a broad upper level trough will be present from Iceland to Western France with surface low pressure over NW Italy. Numerous showers are likely from Italy and the Balkans to France to the UK. A few daytime thunderstorms are possible over the Balkans. On Thursday very deep low pressure will be located offshore Ireland and will move quickly East or NE (depending on model) and will likely be a high impact wind and rain event over Ireland/UK and portions of Northern France. Unfortunately, at this time the models do not agree on the eventual position of the deep low pressure with the GFS showing the deep low pressure over the London area at 06z Friday while the EURO is showing the low much further to the South and West, in the Northern Bay of Biscay. I will have a further update on this storm tomorrow.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – at mid day Wednesday a zonal flow will be present from the Canadian Maritimes to Western France. Peak velocities will be in the 125 knot range.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
