Good Wednesday Morning!
Storm Austen has been named by the UK met office and will be at least a moderate impact storm for Ireland and the UK while it most likely be a higher impact storm for Northern France. Further details are noted below in the Europe section. A POTUS TFR is likely in Macon GA on 10/24 and in PBI from the 23rd until the 25th October. Significant changes are going to take place for much of Western Canada in terms of time changes on November 1st. Most of Western Canada will remain on DST year around with the exception of Saskatchewan which will remain on CST year around. Going to have to watch the bay of Bengal this weekend for likely TC development based on the latest EURO and GFS models. The google AI model is also picking up on this too. Might want to be careful using Newfoundland on Friday as a tech stop or ETP airport as deep low pressure is likely to pass just to the SE of the Island with heavy snow possible along with gusty winds.
No critical weather days are in effect through Friday. Space weather remains quiet through Friday also.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a rare, enhanced risk exists through tonight over portions of Central and NW AZ as a very strong upper-level system approaches the area along with dewpoints in the 60s. Large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible. Even on Thursday portions of central AZ are highlighted for scattered severe thunderstorms.
Tropical weather outlook – Cat 5, TC Champi, 475 miles South of Kadena AFB is moving WNW at 13 knots. It will likely weaken slowly over the next 48 hours as it heads in a general NW direction. As was the case earlier in the week the operational GFS and EURO models want to take the cyclone into Taiwan, while the AI models mirror the JTWC forecast with little impact to Taiwan expected. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as normally you do not see such a dramatic forecast difference between these models.
Europe outlook – storm Austen, named by the UK Met office yesterday will be a high impact event for Ireland/Southwest UK Thursday night and Northern France on Friday. Greatest impact on England will be gusty NW winds on Friday, behind the departing intense low-pressure area. Very deep area of low pressure will be located 300 miles NW of Belfast on Saturday with a warm front approaching the Western UK with high winds and moderate rain expected early Sunday morning. Amber warnings for high winds have been issued from 03am local until 10am local on Friday over the SW UK.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – on Friday a fairly strong jet will be present from YQX to EINN with velocities of 150 knots, thus East bound flights will have a very good tail wind.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
