Good Friday Morning!
A presidential TFR is likely at PANC on October 13th along with Las Vegas area. Airport closures due to Hurricane Isaias are imminent along with gulf route closures. A bulletin was just issued regarding Saudi Airspace and opsgroup is recommending avoiding the Airspace. The airspace is technically open however extreme caution is advised. PNS, Pensacola INTL is now closed until 10/10 at 22z.
A Critical weather day remains in effect through at least Saturday morning for Hurricane Isaias. A G2 (moderate) alert has been issued for today and Sunday in terms of space weather.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a slight risk has been issued for later on this afternoon through Saturday for portions of the NE Gulf into the SE USA due to landfalling Isaias. A few tornadoes are possible along with gusty winds.
Tropical weather outlook – Cat 3 Isaias, 240 miles South of Pensacola FL is moving NNE at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph with a pressure of 959mb. Landfall is expected very close to Pensacola this evening. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will move into this region by early afternoon. Hurricane Simon, 200 miles S of Manzanillo, Mexico is expected to make landfall just to the South of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico around 18z Sunday as a very strong CAT 2 hurricane. Western Pacific remains active however no land masses will be impacted fortunately.
Europe outlook – On Sunday, a cold upper-level low over Southern Sweden will help initiate daytime showers over Eastern Europe while an upper-level ridge builds into Spain providing good weather over Southwestern Europe. On Monday, an upper-level ridge will be present from Portugal to the North Sea while a few showers will be present over extreme Eastern Europe.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – a broad upper-level trough over the Central Atlantic will strongly influence the jet on Sunday. On Monday, an upper-level low over Southern Greenland and the upper-level ridge from the Canaries to Spain will strongly influence the jet.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
